Heavy rain, flooding possible through Sunday in Northwest Florida

A long corridor of southerly flow will carry rich tropical moisture from the western Caribbean up across the eastern Gulf and into the tri-state area through Sunday. Several rounds of heavy rain are expected through Sunday, but Saturday may see the heaviest rain. Some heavy rain could possibly extend inland to the I-10 corridor, and west to near Bay County. 

The heaviest three-day rainfall totals are expected near the coast of the Florida Big Bend, where rain totals of 4-6 inches are forecast. Isolated spots could get 10 inches or more.

These higher amounts could lead to flash flooding. If the heaviest rain totals happen as expected near the coast, it would confine riverine flooding to coastal rivers such as the Sopchoppy, Aucilla, Saint Marks, and Steinhatchee.  If the high-end amount falls over one of these basins, then moderate flooding would be possible. 

Thunderstorms this afternoon carry the potential for a brief, isolated tornado, along with a damaging wind gust, particularly east of a Tallahassee-to-Albany line. There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of south-central Georgia today.

There has been no increase in confidence related to the threat of minor coastal flooding along the shore of Apalachee Bay. The National Weather Service continues to eye the high tide cycles late tonight and Saturday afternoon, but confidence remains too low to issue any headlines for coastal flooding.